The Waste Dive Outlook on 2021

In recent years, Waste Dive has shifted away from the annual prediction business. Between China’s scrap import policy changes, surprise M&A moves, effects from the coronavirus pandemic and plenty more, we’ve found this industry is increasingly full of unexpected turns. 

Instead, as we map out our beats and strategies for the new year, we’re letting you in on the planning process for covering whatever may lie ahead in 2021. As we ramp up, these are some of the key questions and themes we'll keep coming back to in the months ahead.

The following analysis is based on reporting and research by the Waste Dive team. We invite you to share thoughts on these questions, or others of your own, via email at waste.dive.editors@industrydive.com.

Will climate and circular economy goals reshape the industry’s status quo?

The waste and recycling industry’s largest service providers say they’re agnostic on where material goes once it’s picked up, for the right returns. That concept may be put to the test even more this year due to growing attention around environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) goals, pressure on consumer brands to improve how their products are made and recycled, the looming climate crisis and promises from government officials at all levels to drive change.

If industry companies want to meet their targets around reducing greenhouse gas emissions and boosting recycling volumes, some analysts and observers believe they will need to make new capital investments and potentially pivot more to certain lines of business. Common areas of interest may include new fleet technology, more advanced emissions management systems at disposal sites, enhanced MRF equipment and greater organics processing capabilities. 

While this approach isn’t new for some operators, the pace and scale of change that will be needed to meet the ESG goals of the companies’ investors, customers and regulators could mark a notable inflection point. This fresh attention could also potentially affect competitive dynamics among existing operators, while boosting others in adjacent sectors – such as standalone organics recycling companies – and invite new or enhanced investment from outside players.

How will industry competition and consolidation evolve in an uncertain year?

While many in the industry have recovered much of the business lost from the pandemic’s initial shocks, it remains hard to predict how much the economy will improve this year. With Democrats poised to control the federal government, analysts have also made numerous projections about potential corporate tax changes and other financial shifts that could affect M&A.

This industry is coming off a booming period of M&A activity during the Trump era, fueled in part by corporate tax changes, and 2020 was quite busy despite pandemic-related delays. While some analysts believe Waste Management and Republic Services may have done their last major deals – pending the latter’s acquisition of Santek Waste Services – other companies have multiple options left for big transactions. And the industry still has numerous opportunities for deals ranging from tuck-ins to larger private companies. Sources indicate it’s too soon to know what effect the Biden administration may have on industry antitrust policy, and will depend in part on pending leadership announcements.

Beyond these national trends, local questions of how and where key industry players will compete for business – from jockeying for customer accounts and collection contracts up to the dominance of transfer and disposal assets – will inform both M&A and organic growth. As the aftermath of last year’s deals shakes out, multiple regional markets are adapting to a scenario with fewer competitors or watching as newer ones make their moves. Legislative and regulatory drivers, such as New York City’s commercial waste zone contract process and upcoming organics diversion requirements in multiple states, are also likely to spur more changes.

How will landfills, incinerators and other major industrial facilities adapt to rising operational and financial pressures? 

Even if disposal volumes were to shift notably – an outcome few expect – current sites will remain key elements of infrastructure for the foreseeable future. Operating these sites has never been simple. When factoring in increased scrutiny around greenhouse gas and other emissions, leachate management and tense community relations, it’s only going to get more complex and expensive.

Among the most pressing new issues is managing per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the waste stream. Some in the industry hope this could be the year it can move from a more defensive posture of sorting out potential infrastructure changes and legal exposure, to a more proactive footing. Depending on how regulations evolve, certain types of wastewater processing or disposal technologies could step up as part of the solution. Following the U.S. EPA’s recent draft disposal guidance, much more action is expected under Biden.

The issue of environmental justice, a decades-old concept getting renewed attention in recent years, is also an underlying factor around many disposal sites. The Biden administration has pledged to make it a focus, multiple state and local governments are passing or considering new laws, and the equity question is not going away. 

Is 2021 finally the year for big federal or state recycling policy changes?

Unlike parts of Canada and Europe, the United States has been slow to adopt extended producer responsibility (EPR) programs for packaging. Last year’s efforts were stalled because of the pandemic, but 2021 could be the time for some of these policies to make headway at the state level. 

New bills have been previewed or proposed in New York and Washington, with an estimated 10 or more states expected to see EPR legislation this year. That list includes California, which became the first in the nation to enact a recycled content requirement for plastic beverage containers last year. Other states might follow suit on recycled content legislation, including New Jersey.

At the federal level, one EPR-related bill that previously failed to gain traction in Congress but could make a comeback is the Break Free From Plastic Pollution Act. Several environmental groups support it because of features such as packaging EPR, product stewardship regulations and plastic bans or reduction efforts. 

The industry is also keeping an eye on the new administration, which has said it will support climate and clean energy initiatives but has yet to announce plans specific to recycling. A group of community and environmental advocacy groups have asked Biden to enact plastic recycling-related initiatives outlined in an action plan, such as creating an office for recycling market development and waste reduction and appointing a plastic pollution czar.

What will it take to make recycled content levels rise and domestic markets grow in a significant way?

Some experts anticipate 2021 could be a period of recovery for domestic recycling markets as municipal recycling systems get back to pre-pandemic operations and MRFs rebuild partnerships with plastics manufacturers and brand owners willing to integrate higher percentages of recycled content into their products. Recyclers are still working on how to invest in and expand domestic markets for items like paper and plastics that used to go to China and other countries that have enacted similar import bans. 

In its recent draft national recycling strategy, the EPA includes priorities such as reducing contamination in the recycling stream, improving domestic markets for recyclables and increasing efficiency by connecting industry operators with tools and funding they need. The passage of Save Our Seas 2.0, which President Trump signed in December, offers $55 million in funding each year through 2025 for improving "local post-consumer materials management," that includes municipal recycling. 

MRFs are also continuing to seek grant funding for pilot projects that could help strengthen markets for harder-to-recycle materials, such as plastic film, plastic bags or polypropylene. Many are using the funding to upgrade equipment to integrate robotics or other cutting-edge processing technologies to create cleaner streams of recyclables that could be more attractive to domestic buyers, but many of these efforts can take years to fully develop.

North American mills are also in the process of increasing recycled paper capacity to accommodate material that once went overseas. At least 28 expansion or conversion projects have been announced since 2018, or are in the works, with nine completed so far. The Northeast Recycling Council, which tracks these projects, says it’s not guaranteed that all projects will be completed.

Recyclers also say brands and retailers will still play a major role in influencing domestic market growth when they announce sustainability goals and pledge to use recycled content in their products and packaging. Public pressure to increase the recycled content of their packaging will continue to be an important market driver, but some worry these companies’ efforts to replace virgin materials with recycled alternatives may stall if the cost difference, particularly for plastics, remains wide.

How can local governments build back their budgets and preserve their sustainability goals when it comes to waste and recycling services?

Life during COVID-19 has in many cases distanced cities and states from sustainability goals. New York cut residential curbside organics collection, Baltimore delayed implementation of its planned single-use plastic bag ban, Philadelphia eliminated its Zero Waste and Litter Cabinet, Denver’s hopes to adopt a pay-as-you-throw system didn’t feel appropriate while so many people faced economic hardship, and one San Francisco newspaper simply described California’s current recycling system as “a dumpster fire.”

The pandemic upended local budgets, in some cases lowering the priority of waste and recycling programs, as equally constrained customers struggled to pay bills. At the start of the new year, local governments remain stretched thin, particularly in the aftermath of being cut out of funding in the $900 billion coronavirus aid package passed by Congress last month.

Some municipalities have enacted typically unpopular rate increases to keep waste and recycling services going. And some are optimistic about how the Biden administration’s outlined climate actions, including boosting green infrastructure, could help them in recovering from the pandemic. With Democrats set to have control of Capitol Hill, state and local government relief is expected to come up in a future relief bill. At the same time, the onus may also fall on haulers and equipment manufacturers to adapt how they approach pricing and purchasing discussions with cities during the recovery.

Where will we see the next big advancements and investments in collection technology?

While city sanitation or public works departments may be limited on near-term investments, healthier cash flow at private companies could still support fleet upgrades.

In the bid to electrify collection fleets, 2020 ended with a fizzle as Republic Services and Nikola called off plans to design and build at least 2,500 vehicles, in part citing unforeseen costs. Although that deal had marked the largest industry commitment to date, Republic said it plans to keep working with other OEM partners toward electrification, as will its peers. Compressed natural gas vehicles also remain an area of investment, but are now more commonly viewed as an interim option.

Widespread changes to fleets won’t happen overnight, but falling costs of electric vehicles and increasingly attractive total cost of ownership analyses, ambitious city and statewide emissions mandates coming down the pike, and investor interest in ESG targets are among the factors that could push electrification efforts forward this year. Broadly, Biden has voiced support for expanding EV charging infrastructure, a current barrier.

Elsewhere, cameras and other technologies still have runway for adoption – particularly as safety incidents continue to vex the industry despite years of effort – as do products used to make routes more efficient, right-size containers and pickups, and allow waste management companies to more proactively communicate with customers. Investments in these areas could provide competitive edges for companies of all sizes, making technology an increasingly important area to watch.  

Amid an ongoing pandemic, and a challenging national record, how safe will it be to work in this industry?

The pandemic has served as a reminder of how “essential” the waste and recycling industry is, according to state and federal designations, while also highlighting the physical vulnerabilities of its workforce. Thousands of workers are estimated to have contracted the coronavirus on and off the clock, and it’s estimated that dozens have died. As the vaccine rollout starts at a slow pace, the numerous workers who still have limited options for social distancing on the job could remain at risk.

At the same time, the industry’s long-running challenge of improving broader safety metrics remains a work in progress. While federal data indicated collection workers were no longer in the top five most fatal occupations for 2019, many agree it’s too soon for a victory lap. A recent federal study also found public awareness of the industry-supported “Move Over” laws remains low, signaling the continued need for creativity in this area. Figuring out how to protect workers from physical or viral hazards is likely to remain an ongoing challenge, and is a question that may bear repeating for years to come.

Will commitments made by many industry companies and groups after last year’s racial reckoning remain a priority? 

Diversity issues weren’t new to the industry before last year’s racial reckoning, but they took on greater prominence and prompted fresh discussions. Conversations about improving representation and equity permeated everywhere from local advocacy groups to major public companies. The conversation also lifted up issues such as hazard pay for a frontline workforce that largely comprises people of color in many areas, as well as environmental justice considerations.

Many of these discussions have fallen out of the spotlight, and observers believe it remains an open question if or how the industry will evolve on this topic. Leadership and managements roles in many parts of the industry are still less diverse than many sectors, per federal data, and debate continues about wage or working conditions for frontline employees in multiple areas. Waste Dive will continue following up on progress – or lack thereof – throughout the year.

Local government budgets have been stretched and strained during the past year in previously unimaginable ways. Even with hundreds of billions of dollars in help potentially on the way to state and municipal operations, collection services are still expected to face worker absences and record levels of trash and recycling to manage.

The circumstances have required certain haulers and municipalities to at least temporarily change the services they offer. Still, some companies and governments are weighing imminent investments in new, customizable technologies aiming to make collection safer and more efficient, while lowering fleets’ environmental impact — one of the buzziest and most capital-intensive areas being around electric trucks.

In Baltimore for example, where citywide curbside recycling just restarted following a more than four-month hiatus, the pandemic ended up being the tipping point for acquiring logistics software from Rubicon. That nearly $792,000 investment via an emergency contract sets the city up to use the turn-by-turn route optimization product for a year, said Baltimore Department of Public Works’ John Chalmers, who heads the bureau of solid waste.

According to Rubicon, which has sold that software to more than 55 cities since 2017, the company had been in talks with Baltimore prior to COVID-19.

Yet, heightened worker absences due to illness or quarantine illuminated the challenge of how a manager or experienced driver being out could impede a crew's ability to run a typical route. Digitizing routes changes that in Baltimore's view. “When we get a new driver, that driver is going to hit the ground running,” Chalmers said.

The product suite is also meant to track missed pickups, which is considered especially critical as people stay home and produce higher-than-typical amounts of waste.

“The conversation really, because of the pandemic, I think accelerated. And we really started to get serious about talking about how we can help them on their operation, given all the challenges of the pandemic,” said Conor Riffle, Rubicon’s vice president of smart cities. The Baltimore contract aside, "overall, COVID has increased adoption of our technology."

Ultimately, Chalmers said, the city is interested in exploring other fleet and collection technologies but will see whether budgets allow.

Pressures to evolve

The pandemic, while pervasive, is a more temporary force for change than other regulatory and economic factors industry participants and observers alike believe will swell support for novel fleet and collection technologies.

Route optimization may be the lower-hanging fruit when it comes to making trucks more efficient on the road, and potentially reducing emissions as a result, but the vehicles themselves are also poised to change — eventually.

In Baltimore, a 2019 Sustainability Plan established a goal to drive citywide greenhouse gas emissions 30% below 2007 levels by 2023. On the opposite coast, Los Angeles committed to having a zero-emissions fleet by 2035, and the state of California has a mandate that all new vehicles sold in the state be electric by that same year. The list goes on — more loosely, Washington, D.C. is teaming with 15 states to ensure 30% of all new medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sales are zero-emission vehicles by 2030 (with an aim for that to reach 100% come 2050).

New York City is testing the waters with both partial and fully electric solutions for its more than 6,000-vehicle sanitation fleet. In the meantime, Canadian hybrid electric technology company Effenco retrofitted a dozen of its trucks to reduce engine use while idling and plans to do 14 more.

Effenco President David Arsenault views the disruptions felt during COVID-19 as a catalyst for change. "The waste industry is kind of a conservative industry," Arsenault said. "Most of our customers — the fact that they saw such a tiny virus having a tremendous impact on the life of everybody — now they're really thinking: what about climate change?"

Additionally, Mack Trucks, which says it currently has the largest share of DSNY's fleet, delivered an electric demo model to the department this past fall.

While some cities may not be moving as quickly on electrification, the better-capitalized private sector is being pushed along by environmental pressure from investors.

Over the past couple years, all publicly traded companies in the sector have set, or pledged to set, greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets, an important piece of environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) goals. The nature of those emissions reduction targets differs by company, but regardless of the timing or how they're quantified, all are headed in the same direction and could approach those goals with the aid of at least partial fleet electrification or other investments in new technology.

Electrification on the horizon

Among those major companies, Republic Services has arguably been most out in front on embracing an electric future. President Jon Vander Ark this past year called the company "very bullish on electrification in the long term."

Still, Republic's industry-leading agreement with Nikola for up to 5,000 electrified refuse trucks, announced last August, came to an end in December. The companies cited "longer than expected development time, and unexpected costs."

Republic has said it's still very committed to pressing forward on electric options. Mack is one of those partners, and the team plans to test a jointly developed product early next year. Republic is also a key investor (and its chief operating officer is a member of the board of directors) at Romeo Electric Power, a recently public California company developing lithium-ion battery modules and packs for commercial electric vehicles.

"We look forward to working with all of our OEM partners to capitalize on innovative new technologies," the company said in a statement following the breakup with Nikola, adding that it's "planning to make additional purchases from various suppliers in 2021." Republic did not make a representative available to discuss the change further.

“You're seeing an increasing amount of competition, which is healthy and I think supports quality improvement," said Noah Kaye, a senior research analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

Kaye cited existing industry partners such as Mack, Peterbilt and Lion all making plays in electric, but suggested it's still open season for vendors large and small, assuming they check the important boxes and are able to support a strong supply chain. "Waste companies shouldn't feel precluded from working with new entrants in the market."

One such company seeking to seize the moment is electric powertrain developer Wrightspeed, yet another California-based fleet tech hopeful.

"It's safe to say that everybody is talking to everybody right now," said Chairman Kevin Landis, noting interest from prospective partners.

In Landis' opinion, more influential than government or investor-driven climate actions are the declining costs associated with electric technologies.

"It's more about the economics than the politics," Landis said. "It's encouraging that the public dialogue [is good.] And that provides a source of pressure. But if the economics aren't there, then fleet operators will just do the minimum to check the box."

While Wrightspeed has previously tested its powertrains in the waste sector, it does not have any active pilots on the road. The company has had a number of leadership changes in recent years, including the departure of founder Ian Wright, a co-founder of Tesla.

By the company's own analysis, its diesel range-extended electric powertrain could save over $16,000 a year when compared to a heavy-duty residential garbage truck's fuel economy. Like other companies marketing collection technologies, there's a great emphasis on customization, with options for mid-life retrofitting, or potentially an entirely new electric truck.

But of Wrightspeed's offerings, the compressed natural gas (CNG) option continues to display the lowest total cost of ownership, according to company data. CNG, which is sometimes referred to as a "bridge technology" and does not reduce emissions as dramatically as electric, is also the method still favored by Waste Management and some others in the industry.

Another industry observer believes that while COVID-19 negatively affected local budgets, cities will always be cash-constrained in considering a big electrification transition.

"[M]any companies and municipalities are expected to 'wait-and-see' how early adopters benefit before moving forward with purchasing EVs themselves," said Camron Gorguinpour, director of mobility solutions at sustainability and energy consultancy ENGIE Impact, in an email.

"Overall the unknowns around infrastructure to support EVs, organizations' required fleet range and the cost of these vehicles will be the determining factors in the long-term success of the technology."

Largely, there's a lack of robust commitment so far from many of the major companies. Numerous executives have said electric trucks will be very important in the future, but are quick to name near-term barriers.

"This is an area where I think being a first mover is complex," said Casella Waste Systems Chief Financial Officer Ned Coletta, citing a lack of existing infrastructure and describing electric technologies as both very costly and still early in development. "There are other things that are here and now," Coletta added, giving a nod to route optimization tech as well as automated side load trucks that can more easily address some efficiency and GHG emission concerns in the short run.

Waste Connections, for its part, is beta testing a hybrid truck with a diesel chassis and fully electric body. "We just know that it's going to be a long haul, from beta testing to actual mass production of these vehicles," said Jim Little, executive vice president of engineering and disposal. " So in the interim, we still feel like RNG and CNG has a long way to play ... so we're focused on both ends of that — long term in the electric space and what those vehicles can do for us, and in the short term, building up our RNG capacity."

Meanwhile, compared to other major competitors, Waste Management's collection fleet leans most heavily on CNG (its collection fleet was over 70% CNG prior to finalizing its buyout of Advanced Disposal Services late in 2020) and intends to stick with it for sometime. Waste Management did not specify what the current rate of CNG trucks is since the integration of ADS.

CFO Devina Rankin cited expense and battery weight among the "limitations that prohibit us from seeing this as something that's a near-term solution." But Rankin said the company's fleet strategy would evolve as electric vehicles become "a more realistic and viable part of the solution."

Pitching during a pandemic

Despite the hesitation on the leap to electric, there are myriad other technologies that the industry is more comfortably adopting.

While waste and recycling software provider AMCS has seen some hesitation among prospective customers and a drop in new sales during the COVID-19 crisis, it has received more requests for help with route redesign due to the pandemic reshuffling the ratio between residential and municipal waste versus commercial and industrial volumes, according to Lasse Jiborn, commercial director of intelligent optimization.

On the need for route optimization, Jiborn said "the need has been there all along," but many customers "haven't really sensed the urgency" until the pandemic. It's the other trends that have been developing over the years, including falling costs of connected devices, that enabled those switches to be made relatively seamlessly for customers.

And like Rubicon's successful pitch in Baltimore, other collection technology specialists argue current cost constraints are the precise reason to start using new tools they pitch as paying for themselves.

San Diego-based company Lytx, which labels itself a video telematics specialist, has been around for more than two decades, in part selling 360-degree view dash cameras to fleets to promote safety and accountability.

When Kristin Costas, now director of product management, started at Lytx about nine years ago, a lot of effort went into getting customers comfortable with the idea of having cameras in the vehicle. "Collisions are very, very expensive, especially in the waste world," said Costas. Identifying and eliminating even just a "fraction" of risky behavior "really pays for our technology out of the gate."

In the last five years or so, Costas believes cameras have become ubiquitous. Waste Connections said it recently spent $10 million to replace earlier camera models, primarily through Lytx, though it also deploys cameras from Katy, Texas-based 3rd Eye "in markets where the product is best suited," according to emailed comments from Waste Connections Director of Finance Joe Box. "Overall, we are very excited with the new technology, which should help drive the next leg in improvement to safety." Despite cameras' proliferation in recent years, trash waste and recycling collection remains one of the deadliest occupations in the U.S.

Lytx's marketing still leads with safety, but has evolved to focus on potential cascading bottom-line benefits from safer driving, including using less fuel and putting less wear and tear on a vehicle, Costas said. The company has also dabbled in container tracking, an area San Francisco-based Compology has made its main focus.

Compology specializes in cameras that track contamination in containers, and how quickly they get full, thereby allowing a business to "right size" a pickup schedule. The idea is that the potential to reduce frequency of pickups may save customers money and cut down on unnecessary miles driven and therefore emissions.

According to Compology's findings from approximately 162,000 cameras, the average commercial container in the U.S. is only 46% full when it gets picked up to be emptied. "Now is the time, more than ever, to correct that," said Compology CEO Jason Gates.

Compology also sees opportunity in expanding its services into the newfound need for tracking, calculating and reporting progress on ESG goals as they become more commonplace. Over the long term, the company wants to build connections with back-office systems, and potentially serve as a hub between generators, haulers, and cities or state governments "that are all looking for the same pieces of information, but need it for different reasons."

Overall, Gates believes the businesses reaping the greatest benefits from these tools are those that can incorporate them early on, be they for container monitoring, in-cab routing technology, or customer interaction via chat bots.

As haulers seek help during turbulent times and anticipate future challenges, more are making the business case for that initial investment.

"Often the companies that are having the best return on using the technology are the ones who are able to design their business properties around actually using that technology from day one."

Federal interest in addressing the nation's recycling challenges remains high, but even with new leadership in the Biden administration and Congress, the recycling industry does not expect big changes to come this year. 

The Biden administration’s first environmental priorities are geared more toward broader climate change policy, environmental justice and designating per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) – sometimes known as “forever chemicals” – as hazardous substances. In Congress, recycling-related bills that didn’t gain traction in 2020 are expected to return, but bandwidth is low as Congress focuses on former President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial and issues related to the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, as well as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

“This will be a year to see a lot of [recycling-related] activity, but I’m not certain I’ll see a lot of action because of other priorities these legislators have,” said David Biderman, executive director and CEO of the Solid Waste Association of North America (SWANA). 

Recycling bills expected to return

The discussion over how to improve issues with the domestic recycling system has made its way to Congress over the last few years, in part because scrap import bans in China and other Southeast Asian countries significantly changed the flow and economics of materials in the U.S. 

It has come in the form of several bills that could tackle recycling infrastructure improvements, public education and end markets. Industry groups and lawmakers have different views about which of these issues is the most important way to approach the problem.

The Break Free From Plastic Pollution Act, which Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D-Calif.) and then-Sen. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) introduced in 2020, calls for extended producer responsibility (EPR) and product stewardship for packaging, plastic bans or reduction efforts and a nationwide 10-cent beverage container deposit program.

This bill is likely to “return with a vengeance” in 2021, said Heidi Sanborn, executive director of the National Stewardship Action Council. The new Democratic majority in the Senate could have a role to play in helping it move forward in Congress, along with several environmental groups that championed the bill last year and voters "who voted for Biden in part because of the environment and his views on climate change."

Judith Enck, former U.S. EPA regional administrator and president of the nonprofit Beyond Plastics, said the bill stands out from other recently floated recycling-related proposals floated because it is "the only serious bill that actually includes provisions to reduce the production, use and disposal of plastics."

The bill will still need to gain a new Senate sponsor after Udall’s retirement at the end of 2020. Lowenthal, along with Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) announced they plan to reintroduce the bill in the new Congress. 

Democrats have a small majority in the House and share half the power in the Senate – with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President Kamala Harris – meaning they may need to make some concessions or temper this or other bills' provisions to help bring Republicans on board, said Jim Riley, the National Waste & Recycling Association's (NWRA) chief counsel and senior vice president of government affairs. However, two other bills expected to be reintroduced in 2021 received bipartisan support.

One is the RECYCLE Act, sponsored last year by Sens. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.). The bill aimed to improve recycling education and outreach by authorizing up to $15 million a year in grants for entities such as states and local governments, tribes and nonprofits. It also asked the EPA to more frequently update its guidelines for products containing recycled content. The Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI), the NWRA and SWANA endorsed the bill last year, saying it could help increase recycling participation and make recycling streams cleaner.

Another bill that could return is the RECOVER Act. Introduced by Reps. Tony Cárdenas (D-Calif.) and Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.) last year, it was meant to boost infrastructure projects through up to $500 million in matching grants for improvements to MRFs and curbside collection systems. The bill also aimed to establish a recycling infrastructure program within the EPA.

When introduced, industry groups had mixed reactions. ISRI said the bill focused too much on solving infrastructure problems instead of working on improving end markets for the material that moves through the system, or educating the public about what should or should not go in the recycling bin in the first place, said Billy Johnson, the trade association's chief lobbyist. SWANA, on the other hand, said it was important to support both education efforts through bills like RECYCLE as well as the infrastructure elements outlined in RECOVER.

Biderman said said the recycling industry expects other recycling-related legislation to be introduced this year, based on discussions with stakeholders, and "will review such legislation if it is formally introduced.”

Some new legislation may call for increasing incentives for domestic recycling capabilities, Riley said. This may show up in its own bill or as part of a broader infrastructure package, he said. “I think the past year with COVID is highlighting the need for a domestic supply chain. The markets are already coming online naturally, but there should also be incentives for that.”

Groups like The Recycling Partnership also expect to see more “engagement from Congress with new legislation in 2021,” particularly around funding for expanding existing recycling systems, CEO Keefe Harrison said during a panel discussion with Axios and the American Chemistry Council in December.

Even if these bills don’t become law by the end of the year, lawmakers are motivated to keep recycling efforts within sight because their constituents care about having reliable recycling systems and will keep pressure on their elected officials to make it happen, Johnson said. The public’s awareness of the recycling industry’s importance – and its problems – has increased since the COVID-19 pandemic began, when some curbside programs were suspended, and lawmakers feel pressure to assure their constituents that they are working on fixing broken pieces of the system, he said.

Recyclers are considered essential workers by the federal government and many states, said Johnson, “which helped people start to have another view of why recycling is important now, and that official designation of being an essential business in the supply chain raised awareness of recycling even more.” 

Many recycling-related bills were postponed at the state level last year, in part because of the pandemic, but lawmakers have an opportunity to move more quickly on these issues this legislative session, said Anne Germain, NWRA’s chief operating officer and senior vice president of technical and regulatory affairs. Several states have already introduced EPR bills for packaging or could introduce legislation to increase minimum recycled content standards.

“Even though there is a lot happening on the federal level with respect to recycling, the state level is where we are expecting the bigger changes to occur,” she said. 

Biden administration’s focus on environmental justice, PFAS

The Biden administration has been clear about its plans to focus on climate and clean energy initiatives, including rejoining the Paris climate agreement.

It has not yet announced plans or strategies specific to recycling, though a group of community and environmental advocacy groups recently called on Biden to enact plastic recycling-related initiatives such as creating an office for recycling market development and waste reduction and appointing a plastic pollution czar.

One pressing issue the administration does plan to tackle is environmental justice, noting that “communities of color and low-income communities have faced disproportionate harm from climate change and environmental contaminants for decades.” This renewed federal-level focus on the issue follows recent environmental justice-related efforts that have passed at the state level. 

Industry groups such as ISRI, SWANA and NWRA are taking note. NWRA added a new environmental justice policy position to its 2021 federal legislative and regulatory agenda, saying it “supports policies seeking to advance high standards of environmental performance and the fair treatment of people of all races, cultures and incomes.” 

SWANA says it is having long-term discussions with members about the role the recycling industry can play in the environmental justice discussion. “Solid waste facilities seek to have a minimal impact on the communities they serve, and we will continue to work with government officials and the industry to minimize those impacts,” Biderman said. 

Johnson anticipates some lawmakers might also weave environmental justice-related wording into climate and recycling bills to align their efforts with the new focus on the topic. “They may be changing some of the marketing of their bills… to say they don’t want to inflict an environmental injustice,” he said.

The Biden administration has also indicated it plans to address PFAS. Recyclers don’t generate PFAS, but they likely receive PFAS-laden items at their MRFs and other processing facilities. Although recent EPA guidance on PFAS disposal relates most directly to landfills and incinerators, Adina Renee Adler, ISRI’s vice president of advocacy, said ISRI and other recycling organizations are keeping track of what any future guidance might mean for the recycling industry.

The Biden administration has said it plans to designate the chemicals as a hazardous substance and set enforceable limits for PFAS in the Safe Drinking Water Act. There are currently no maximum contaminant levels established for PFAS chemicals, according to the EPA.

PFAS is a class of over 2,000 chemicals, with two, PFOS and PFOA, garnering the most attention, said James Jones, former assistant administrator at the EPA’s Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention, during a recent panel discussion with waste haulers and investment firm Jefferies.

“I am confident that EPA will determine [PFOS and PFOA] will become hazardous substances in the next two years, making them regulated contaminants,” he said. It’s unclear how the other chemicals in the class could be treated, he said.

Industry eyes new EPA leadership

Other regulatory or policy changes that could take place at the EPA may come after the pending confirmation of Michael Regan as the new administrator.

Regan, the secretary of North Carolina’s Department of Environmental Quality, is known for his work heading up an Environmental Justice and Equity Advisory Board, and he is expected to continue supporting environmental justice efforts in his new role, Adler said. He is also known for negotiating cleanup efforts of the Cape Fear River, which had been contaminated with PFAS. It’s too early to say what other ideas or priorities Regan may bring to the office, but “he has strong credentials and is known for being collaborative,” Adler said.

Recyclers are also interested to see who might step into the assistant administrator role in the EPA's Office of Land and Emergency Management. “Whoever it is will be a key player, and knowing that person’s priorities in solid waste, and recycling in particular, will be important,” Biderman said.  

Recycling industry associations say it’s critical to build strong relationships with the new EPA leadership because it provides a way to offer feedback and data that could affect major federal recycling policy. The EPA’s draft National Recycling Strategy is one example, Biderman said. 

SWANA enjoyed good relationships with former Assistant Administrator Peter Wright, former Administrator Andrew Wheeler and their staff, Biderman said, making it possible for them to provide “substantial input” when the EPA was writing its draft “and it’s my hope we have similar access and input with the new administrator’s team."

The draft National Recycling Strategy, which the EPA is expected to finalize soon, includes priorities such as reducing contamination in the recycling stream, improving domestic markets for recyclables and increasing processing efficiency. A major goal is to increase the national recycling rate to 50% by 2030, through metrics that have not been fully defined.

ISRI has asked the EPA to clarify language in the draft and define key words to better differentiate between waste and recyclable commodities, and it urges the federal government to purchase more goods that are made from recycled content. The strategy has not yet been finalized, “so we have had no signals about whether or not the new administration will continue that work,” Adler said, but ISRI sees the draft document as a good start for guiding future U.S. recycling policy. “The new administration could come in with good ideas, too,” she said.

Germain said the EPA “worked hard to establish a framework that is inclusive to stakeholders” and she doesn’t expect many surprises when the final plan comes out. NWRA pushed for the document to include more details on how the country will achieve the 50% recycling goal, “which we do not think could be achieved on a voluntary basis,” she said. NWRA believes “legislative intercession” could help the U.S. get there, along with strategies such as mandatory minimum recycled content standards.

It is too early to tell how – and how immediately – the recycling strategy could influence change. Jones predicts the federal government, “a huge purchaser of a range of products,” could update its federal purchasing requirements to reflect more recycled products sometime during Biden’s term in office.

Though it's unclear how much traction recycling legislation will have in Congress in 2021, Germain said the recycling sector will still try to move forward with its goals in 2021, whether through state-level actions or by working closely with the EPA. 

"The previous administration's EPA was a big proponent of recycling, and we expect the new administration to be, too. You hear how recycling is as American as mom and apple pie," she said. Among manufacturers, stakeholders and lawmakers, "you're hard-pressed to find someone opposed to recycling. It's just a matter of how much attention it gets."