Waste companies continue to fine-tune their recycling technologies and pricing strategies to offset shifting recycled commodity prices. 

During recent Q4 earnings calls, executives from major waste companies noted that lower commodity prices have created minor headwinds at the start of 2025. Yet companies like WM, Republic Services, Waste Connections, Casella Waste Systems and GFL Environmental see opportunities in 2025 to even out price volatility through continued adjustments in fee-for-service models and further investments in technology.

Catch up on the latest recycling statistics and commentary from Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings reports, plus company predictions on how commodity prices will affect 2025 earnings.

WM

• WM estimates blended recycled commodity price in 2025 of around $85 a ton, which is down slightly from an average of $92 a ton in 2024, said Tara Hemmer, WM’s chief sustainability officer, during the Jan. 30 earnings call. WM noted “bottom of the trough” prices of around $80 a ton in December, but the company expects “moderate” price increases through the year. 
• Technology improvements are also expected to help. WM spent $443 million in 2024 on recycling automation and growth, including at 12 recycling facilities. The company sees such investments as a major way to grow revenue and lower operating costs while producing cleaner recycling streams. “We’re getting a price premium on what we produce,” said CFO Devina Rankin.
• The company also continues to adjust its fee-for-service model, which helps insulate WM from major commodity price swings and assures “that we get paid first for processing,” Rankin said. 
• WM reported earning $1.603 billion from recycling processing and sales in 2024.

Republic Services

• Republic Services reported average blended commodity prices of $153 per ton during Q4, compared with $131 per ton in the prior year, said CFO Brian DelGhiaccio during the Feb. 13 earnings call. Full year 2024 commodity prices were $164 per ton, compared with $117 per ton the previous year. Republic estimates full-year 2025 prices to be a baseline of about $145 a ton. 
• Republic reported earning $409 million in recycling revenue for 2024.
• Republic expects recycling technology enhancements will boost revenue, CEO Jon VanderArk added, particularly a camera system it uses to identify overfilled containers and recycling contamination. Republic began issuing fees for overfilled or contaminated containers in 2023. “This technology generated more than $60 million in incremental revenue in the first year of operation,” he said. 

Waste Connections

• Executives on Waste Connections’ Q4 earnings call on Feb. 13 didn’t get into details on commodity price predictions, but CEO Ron Mittelstaedt touted the company’s overall strategy of using AI and robotics for “higher productivity and output quality” at its recycling facilities. Waste Connections reported that growth in its solid waste sector, attributed to recycling, was flat for the quarter and up less than 1% from the previous year. 
• Waste Connections reported in its annual securities filing that it had increased fees it charges for collecting and processing recycling “to more fully reflect the processing costs associated with the separation of recyclables into marketable commodities.” During the earnings call, Mittelstaedt acknowledged that “the entire industry has moved to much more of [this] model” 

GFL Environmental

Financial information for GFL is in Canadian dollars except where noted.

• GFL Environmental reported an average blended commodity price of about $180 per ton at the end of 2024, compared with the average 2024 price of about $200 a ton said CFO Luke Pelosi. 
• GFL sees its increasing role in Canadian extended producer responsibility contracts as a key way to ease future price volatility. “As we have transitioned to EPR, our recycling business is structurally less sensitive to commodity prices due to the higher proportion of overall recycling revenues derived from processing fees,” Pelosi said. 
• The company’s multiyear spending on EPR-related infrastructure projects is expected to top $600 million by the end of the year. Execs expect to spend another $50 million in following years.

Casella

• Casella reported a 13% year-over-year increase in average commodity revenue for Q4. Commodity prices so far in 2025 “remain firm” despite softness in the fiber market that offset stronger plastics and aluminum prices, said CFO Brad Helgeson.
• CEO John Casella said the company “had one of the best years in history” for recycling process operations, due in part to “better than expected” operations at the company’s renovated Boston MRF, which reopened in 2023. Casella recently wrapped up a similar upgrade at its MRF in Willimantic, Connecticut, which is expected to generate about $4 million of earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortization in 2025 and double its processing speed due to new upgrades. 
• Casella will continue to invest in recycling facility upgrades as a way to reduce operating costs and fetch higher commodity prices. “We continue to evaluate other opportunities to advance our recycling and resource management infrastructure with a focus on another recycling facility conversion in the near term,” he said.
• The company’s Resource Solutions segment, which includes recycling operations, earned $342.9 million in 2024.

This story first appeared in the Waste Dive: Recycling newsletter. Sign up for the weekly emails here.