All financial information is in Canadian dollars.

• Financial picture: GFL Environmental reported that multiple Q4 metrics exceeded company projections, growth it expects will continue this year. Notably, adjusted free cash flow totaled $820.3 million. “We view 2025 as just the beginning. We believe we have an exceptional multiyear outlook,” said CEO Patrick Dovigi during a Tuesday earnings call. “I don’t think our setup has ever been better.”
• Solid waste: The company reported its waste and recycling segment had $1.57 billion in revenue during Q4, a result driven by pricing and a 2.3% increase in volumes. Lower recycling commodity prices were a headwind, but CFO Luke Pelosi said the company’s increasing role in Canadian extended producer responsibility contracts now help shield it from some of the volatility.
• Environmental services: This segment’s revenue was $414.7 million in the quarter, down year over for multiple reasons. A deal to sell a majority stake in this business to affiliates of asset management fund Apollo and investment firm BC Partners is expected to close March 1.
• Debt update: Following the sale, GFL intends to repay approximately $3.75 billion in debt in an effort to appease investors and reduce interest costs. Dovigi said it’s too soon to know when this may lead to an investment-grade credit rating, but he expects “material” upgrades in the meantime and improvement is “squarely in our sight now post the debt repayment next week.”
• Stock plans: Dovigi said “the board thinks that the stock is materially undervalued” and the company intends to spend an estimated $2.25 billion on buybacks, the first time it will have done so since going public in 2020. This includes plans to purchase a certain amount of shares from key investors BC Partners and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, which may lead to a change in board composition. Increased dividend spending is also planned.
• Capital expenditures: GFL spent approximately $300 million on growth investments in 2024 and is targeting $325 million for 2025. This includes renewable natural gas projects and MRF investments as a result of EPR contracts. GFL’s multiyear spending on EPR-related infrastructure is expected to total $600 million by the end of 2025, with another $50 million remaining in the following years.
• Tariffs: Dovigi said he expected any future tariffs to have “de minimis impact” on the company. If equipment manufacturers end up raising prices due to tariffs then GFL would in turn raise its own prices for customers.
• M&A: GFL’s 2024 acquisition spending was more muted than prior years, including 11 deals total. Dovigi said one small transaction already closed this year and previewed plans to ramp up spending in existing markets soon. An estimated 75% of spending is targeted for the U.S., with the remainder in Canada. Pelosi said these plans “can be executed without having a significant impact on leverage.”
• Guidance: GFL is guiding 2025 revenue of nearly $8.43 billion when including contribution from the environmental services business, and revenue of up to $6.55 billion without it. It forecasts solid waste core pricing of 5.25-5.5% and largely flat volumes. The company expects to share further long-range plans at its Feb. 27 investor day.